The Truth Behind Luxury Watch Auctions: Are There Real Bargains?

The Allure of a Starting Bid

Imagine bidding on a luxury watch with a starting price of just . It sounds like the perfect opportunity to snag a high-end timepiece at a fraction of its value. But is it really possible to find a bargain in these online auctions? Let's explore the reality through a real experience with a Rolex Submariner ref. 16613, a two-tone blue model that many collectors admire.

A Real Bidding War: The Rolex Submariner 16613

In August 2020, the second-hand market value for a Rolex Submariner 16613 with full set (box and papers) was around ¥62,000, while the watch alone was about ¥60,000. During an online auction, the bidding started at ¥37,001, with increments of ¥1,000. The author entered at ¥38,001, but within minutes, others pushed the price to ¥39,001, then ¥40,001. The back-and-forth continued until the author reached ¥58,001. When the price hit ¥59,001, the author was hesitant to continue, as the market value was ¥62,000, and their mental limit was ¥60,000. However, the bidding didn't stop there. The price soon reached ¥61,001, and the author decided to exit. The auction system then entered an extended phase, indicating that others were still bidding. The platform's rule: if a bid is placed in the final two minutes, the auction time is automatically extended. In the end, the watch sold for ¥63,001, which was slightly above the market value of ¥62,000.

Why Bidding Can Exceed Market Value

It's common for auction prices to surpass market value. The winning bidder might be willing to pay a premium for the convenience or the thrill of winning. Additionally, everyone has different spending habits, and some buyers prioritize personal satisfaction over cost efficiency. In this case, the final price was only ¥1,000 above market, which is not a significant overpayment.

The Suspicious Aftermath: Contacting the Seller

After the auction, the author noticed a note in the listing: "If you were the second or third highest bidder, please contact our customer service." Curious, the author reached out and was told that if they could accept a price of ¥62,001, the watch could be shipped immediately. This raises two possibilities:

The winning bidder backed out: Most sellers offer a 7-day return policy, so the winner could have simply refused delivery or returned the watch after receiving it. In that case, the seller wouldn't be able to offer the watch to the next bidder so quickly, unless they were shipping a different watch altogether.
The seller used a shill bidder: To ensure the final price is profitable, sellers might have accomplices bid up the price. If the shill bidder ends up winning, the seller can then approach the second or third highest bidders and offer the watch at a price that still yields a profit. This is a common tactic to avoid selling at a loss.

The Strategy Behind Shill Bidders

If the second or third bidders decline the offer, the seller can simply claim the watch was sold locally, creating a fake record of a high auction price. This record can then be used to convince in-store customers that the watch is worth more, offering it at a lower price and making them feel they're getting a bargain. For example, the seller might say, "Online auction prices reached ¥63,000, but I can let you have it for ¥61,000." This psychological tactic makes customers believe they're getting a deal, even though they're paying close to market value.

Conclusion: Are There Real Bargains?

In the world of online watch auctions, the odds of finding a genuine bargain are slim. Sellers are professional watch dealers who know the market inside out. As the old saying goes, "You can't outsmart a sharp dealer." While some auctions may occasionally end below market value, they are rare exceptions, not the rule. It's essential to approach these auctions with caution and realistic expectations.